TxDOT Pipeline Changes - February 2026

• The pipeline remains stable in structure, with 5,541 projects in the March 2026–January 2029 letting window and no meaningful shift in project mix.

• Movement is concentrated in timing and cost, with projects continuing to shift in both directions and total value decreasing by $723M (-2.1%).

• Cost changes are top-heavy, with a small number of large projects driving the majority of dollar movement while most projects see routine estimate updates

This analysis covers 5,541 TxDOT projects scheduled to let between March 6, 2026 and January 1, 2029, comparing how that pipeline changed from February 2 to March 3.

Across that window, the pipeline remains structurally consistent, with movement concentrated in timing and cost rather than scope. Total pipeline value decreased by $723.45M (-2.1%), moving from $33.91B to $33.19B, while the overall mix of projects by size remains effectively unchanged. The work program is still heavily weighted toward smaller jobs, and the types of work being let are consistent with prior snapshots.

The takeaway is straightforward. This is not a shift in what TxDOT plans to build. It is an adjustment in when projects are expected to let and how they are being priced.

Letting dates continue to move in both directions, with a slight bias toward projects being pushed further out. A total of 138 projects shifted by at least six months, with 73 moving later and 65 moving earlier. At the 12-month threshold, 60 projects shifted, with 41 moving later.

At the pipeline level, these shifts show up as a gradual redistribution across time. The share of projects expected in the next 12 months increased slightly from 40.5% to 40.7%, while the share of projects two or more years out increased from 26.4% to 26.8%.

For estimators, the signal is not delay in isolation. The near-term pipeline remains largely intact, but more work is being pushed into later years. That makes the outer pipeline more crowded and less certain, while the next 12 months remain relatively stable. The result is a steady flow of opportunities in the near term, with increasing competition and variability further out.

The mix of work in the pipeline remains consistent. Construction continues to dominate, increasing to 95.7% of the pipeline, with roadway work making up the majority of projects and bridge work representing a smaller but steady share.

The measurable changes at the subtype level are small:

Only 5.3% of projects experienced a subtype change across the window.

For contractors, this reinforces a familiar structure. The pipeline is still overwhelmingly roadway-driven, with bridge work as the primary secondary category. There is no indication of a shift toward new types of work or a change in how TxDOT is allocating scope across categories.

Cost movement is active across the pipeline, but the financial impact is concentrated in a small number of large projects. Total absolute cost movement reached $1.98B, with the top five projects accounting for 56.6% of that total, or $1.12B.

The largest individual changes include:

• CSJ 0500-03-599: -$600.00M

• CSJ 0018-05-089: +$255.61M

• CSJ 0508-01-396: -$166.67M

• CSJ 0502-01-244: -$56.00M

• CSJ 0508-01-410: -$42.87M

At the aggregate level, construction accounts for the majority of the net change, with a total decrease of -$573.23M.

District-level changes are uneven. Houston drives the largest decrease at -$836.97M, while Laredo sees a significant increase of +$256.29M, with smaller movements across other districts.

For estimators, this creates two realities. Many projects are being repriced as estimates evolve, but a small number of large jobs are driving most of the dollar movement. The headline change in total pipeline value is not broad-based. It is driven by a handful of major adjustments.

Across February, the pattern is consistent. Letting dates are moving, with a slight drift toward later years. Costs are being updated across a wide set of projects, but the financial impact is concentrated in a handful of large jobs. The mix of work remains unchanged, with roadway construction continuing to dominate.

The TxDOT pipeline is not changing direction. It is being adjusted.

Expect continued movement in letting dates, especially beyond the next 12 months. Expect ongoing cost updates, with large projects driving most of the dollar impact. Do not expect meaningful changes in the type of work being let.

The signal is not in what is coming. It is in when it will hit and how it will be priced.