TxDOT Q1 2026 Projected Spending

• Projected spending is heavily influenced by the TEX-Size tier, projected at $10.47 billion, while Small, Medium, and Large tiers follow with $9.10 billion, $5.81 billion, and $6.86 billion, respectively.

• Spending is concentrated in districts like Houston, which is projected to contribute over $707 million in FY 2029 Q2; Austin, also a significant contributor, contrasts with more erratic spending patterns in San Antonio and Fort Worth.

• Overall, while districts like Beaumont and Childress show steady run rates, the funding landscape is marked by volatility, particularly in districts like Amarillo, with episodic spikes juxtaposed against calmer trends.

Projected spending is significantly higher than historical averages, with a steep rise of $250.5 million for Houston compared to a historical average of $278.1 million. Overall, spending in Texas is highlighted by the upcoming FY 2029 Q2 projection of approximately $2.94 billion, showcasing a strong growth trajectory.

Spending distribution is predominantly driven by the TEX-Size tier, projected at $10.47 billion, with Medium and Large tiers following at $5.81 billion and $6.86 billion, respectively. For the first fiscal quarter of 2027, spending across different tiers reflects a balanced engagement across all sizes, although the Small tier tends to capture a larger proportion.

• The overall spending distribution is notably top-heavy, with Houston playing a crucial role by contributing significantly in multiple quarters.

• Austin has emerged as a powerhouse, consistently registering large forecasts, while Amarillo sees more volatile peaks, indicating a mix of stable and episodic spending.

• Districts like Beaumont and Childress demonstrate a more consistent spending pattern, in contrast to the erratic trends observed in places like San Antonio and Fort Worth.

• The differences in spending illustrate that while some districts maintain steady rates, others experience spikes that create a more dynamic funding landscape.

Abilene shows a rolling average spend of approximately $47.9 million, with a notable peak forecast in FY 2026 Q4 at $58.5 million, driven primarily by the Large tier which represents a substantial portion. Count-wise, it has a steady mix with 225 Small jobs and only a couple of Medium and Large jobs contributing to the overall figure. In actual spending, Abilene's peak reached $142.8 million during FY 2026 Q4 while the lowest was a mere $12.2 million in FY 2027 Q4. Despite its fluctuations, the district mostly relies on Small-tier work due to the limited number of Medium and Large jobs present in its market landscape.

Amarillo’s forecast reflects diverse engagement across tiers with a rolling average of about $74.9 million, having peaked at $92.2 million in FY 2027 Q1. The breakdown indicates a reliance on Small and Medium tier jobs, with 177 Small jobs reported, showcasing a mixed but focused market approach. In terms of actual spending, Amarillo experienced a peak of $250.9 million in FY 2027 Q3 while dipping to just $1.1 million in FY 2028 Q4. This suggests a pattern of volatility, particularly with a turbulent count of jobs primarily stemming from Small and Medium projects throughout the timeframe.

In Atlanta, the projected spend maintains a rolling average of approximately $39.7 million, with a peak reached in FY 2029 Q1 at $385.0 million, largely spurred by significant contributions from the Large tier. The job count reflects a focus on Small projects, demonstrating a comparatively straightforward engagement strategy with 247 Small jobs recorded. Historically, the district's low point was recorded at $10.4 million in FY 2027 Q2, which positions the variability sharply against its peak. The dynamic illustrated here shows Atlanta’s capacity for large projects, though constrained by a majority of lower-tier jobs.

Austin stands out with a hefty peak forecast of $331.4 million for FY 2029 Q2, indicating a strong TEX-Size presence alongside a substantial mix of other tiers, yielding a rolling average of roughly $233.4 million. The breakdown features a substantial volume of Small projects, with 277 counted jobs, reflecting a secure foundation in well-established sectors. On the actual side, Austin's spend peaked at $1.62 billion in FY 2029 Q2, effectively double its rolling average, while the lowest was merely $36.8 million in the preceding quarter. The significant job count among Small and Medium tiers underscores the resilience in project procurement patterns throughout its quarters.

Beaumont showcases a dynamic with a rolling average forecast of $57.4 million, peaking at $95.1 million in FY 2026 Q3, driven predominantly by Small tier projects. The district displays a solid count of 223 jobs in the Small category, suggesting a sustainable base for its projected spending streams. In actuality, Beaumont's peak spending reached $146.4 million in FY 2029 Q2, demonstrating a healthy operational capacity, while its lowest was recorded at $16.4 million in FY 2026 Q4. The trajectory indicates a strong dependency on Small tier work but limited engagement from higher tiers.

Brownwood reports a rolling average of approximately $23.0 million, with a high point of $29.9 million in FY 2026 Q3, primarily supported by Small tier projects. The number of Small jobs stands at 225, reflecting a concentrated approach within this tier, while Medium contributions remain minimal. The actual spending captured peaks at $143.2 million in FY 2028 Q3, significantly contrasting with the low of just $900K in FY 2027 Q4. This reveals a volatile spending environment characterized by a predominance of Small jobs and occasional bursts of larger scale projects.

Bryan displays a forecast rolling average of around $117.0 million, with the peak occurring in FY 2027 Q4 at $143.2 million, largely stemming from a mix of Medium and Large tier projects. The district also exhibits significant engagement with 461 Small jobs, underscoring a strong foundation of activity at the lower tier. In actual figures, Bryan's spending peak was $365.6 million in FY 2027 Q4, reflecting substantial activity, while a notable dip occurred down to $7.9 million in FY 2028 Q2, revealing fluctuations typical of a district with a versatile tier mix.

Childress holds a distinct position with a rolling average forecast of about $18.6 million, peaking at $22.7 million in FY 2027 Q1, indicating a well-controlled market engagement predominantly through Small tier work. The district features a modest count of jobs at 92, mostly concentrated within that tier. In reality, Childress's peak in actual spending reached $39.7 million in FY 2027 Q1, while the lowest point came in at $2.6 million during FY 2026 Q3. This pattern signifies a stable demand within Small projects despite some marked volatility in its overall financial activities.

The spending in Corpus Christi shows a peak forecast rolling average of $68.1M, with a tier mix heavily influenced by Small projects totaling $308.1M. Actual spending demonstrates a strong peak at $161.1M in FY 2028 Q3, indicating substantial activity despite historical averages around $67.9M.

Dallas exhibits a robust forecast rolling average of $289.8M, with a notable tier mix including Small projects at $887.3M. However, actual spending peaked dramatically at $1.33B in FY 2029 Q1, showcasing a significant spike against a rolling average of $332.9M.

El Paso's rolling average spending forecast is $88.0M, with a balanced tier composition. The district reached a peak of $575.7M in FY 2028 Q1, reflecting a notable surge despite a historical average of only $71.2M.

Fort Worth maintains a forecast rolling average of $116.5M, supported by a spread across Small, Medium, and Large tiers. The actual spending reached a peak of $230.9M in FY 2027 Q3, significantly above its historical averages.

Houston's spending is characterized by a forecast rolling average of $528.6M, driven by high activity levels in the Large tier which alone accounts for $1.25B. With an actual peak at $2.15B in FY 2026 Q4, the district shows remarkable volatility relative to its average of $278.1M.

Laredo's rolling forecast average is $77.8M with a mixed tier distribution. An actual peak in spending of $402.8M occurred in FY 2026 Q3, reflecting dynamic engagement against a backdrop of lower historical averages.

Lubbock's rolling forecast average stands at $54.3M, with a dominant focus on Small and Medium projects. It hit a peak of $334.3M in FY 2027 Q1, illustrating a significant uptrend compared to its average of $41.7M.

Lufkin displays a forecast rolling average of $29.7M, with the majority of activity occurring in the Small tier. The actual peak reached $83.5M in FY 2026 Q4, indicating substantial engagement in recent quarters despite lower historical averages.

Odessa shows a steady trend in spending, primarily driven by Medium projects, with a recent rolling average total of $82.2M. The district's latest actual count includes 137 Small jobs, indicating a stable mix, although a peak actual of $341.9M in FY 2029 Q2 suggests significant episodic activity.

Paris has been relatively volatile, with a noticeable peak actual of $381.1M registered in FY 2028 Q3, hinting at episodic spikes amid a generally steady run rate. The forecast currently leans towards Small projects, comprising a considerable count of 190 jobs, while the broader forecasted rolling average sits at $84.7M.

Pharr displays a consistent pattern of spending with a rolling average total of $135.1M, supported by strong engagement across Small and Medium tiers. The district's forecast reflects 296 job counts, yet a peak of $329.4M in FY 2029 Q1 illustrates its capacity for substantial episodic increases.

San Angelo maintains a steady focus on Small projects, with a rolling average of $34.5M indicating consistent demand across 162 jobs. Its spending pattern reflects typical regional stability, although actual totals suggest occasional sizeable projects, marked by a peak of $97.1M observed in FY 2029 Q2.

San Antonio stands out with robust spending dynamics, sustained by a balanced mix between Medium and Large jobs and a forecast rolling average of $195.0M. A notable peak of $615.6M in FY 2029 Q1 illustrates its potential for large-scale initiatives, supported by a high job count of 250.

Tyler experiences a primarily stable spending pattern with a focus on Small projects, reflected by a recent rolling average of $79.6M. Job counts are slightly lower at 203, although this district showcases potential for significant peaks, such as $230.3M in FY 2026 Q4.

Waco exhibits a notable trend with significant variable spending, especially with the peak actual registered at $810.3M in FY 2029 Q1. The district supports a rolling average of $75.0M, largely shaped by a strong emphasis on Small and TEX-Size projects as evidenced by 261 job counts.

Wichita Falls follows a solid path with a rolling average total of $53.8M, primarily attributed to Small projects, which dominate job counts at 137. The spending profile shows variability, punctuated by a peak of $336.1M in FY 2027 Q1, indicating its capacity for episodic spikes.

Yoakum displays a diverse portfolio with a mixed approach across Small, Medium, and TEX-Size projects, showcasing a rolling average total of $82.6M. The district benefits from a solid base of 267 jobs, but its landscape is highlighted by a peak in actual spending of $297.8M in FY 2027 Q1.